Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has categorically ruled out running for president in 2012 against her boss, President Obama, saying "no, no, no!" when asked by a reporter last year. This is almost certainly wise. With Obama still reasonably popular among rank-and-file Democrats, especially minorities, a primary challenge would be both futile and destructive. In fact, a January CNN poll showed that by a 78 percent to 20 percent margin, Democrats want to see Obama renominated next year, thus making any challenge a definite act of political suicide.
Clinton has publicly stated that she believes her current jobwill be the cap of her career. But there are several reasons tobelieve she can still have a future in the White House if herhealth (currently very good) holds up. If Clinton is still mentallyand physically strong, she could be a major contender, if not themajor one, in 2016.
First, and most importantly, most people believe she is doing a good job as secretary of state. In polls done for CBS News over the past few years, her job approval ratings have ranged from 5-to-1 positive in 2009 to 3-to-1 positive this winter. Foreign leaders, particularly in Europe and Asia, see Clinton as experienced, smart, capable and practical. Her friends have always described her as such and now, apparently, much of the political world also sees her this way.
With the president juggling so many complicated issues, Clintonis the person to see on any foreign policy question. It would behard to think of a single major mistake she has made as secretary,and avoiding the big error is often the key to being a goodexecutive. Her resume now has the executive and foreign affairsexperience that she lacked in 2008. (For a historical comparison:in the early days of the republic, the secretary of state job wasseen as the steppingstone to the presidency. Of our first sixpresidents, four served as secretary of state -- Thomas Jefferson,James Madison, James Monroe and John Quincy Adams -- not badcompany to be in).
Second, against numerous expectations, joining the Obama Cabinet has enhanced her reputation. Other than first lady Michelle Obama, Clinton is the most popular member of the administration. The president has job approval ratings hovering around the 50 percent level, sharply divided along partisan lines. The pattern is very similar for Vice President Biden, and the rest of the Cabinet is not nearly as famous. As Gallup commented, "Clinton's popularity may be partly due to the nature of the secretary of state position, which is somewhat above the fray of partisan politics and focused on defending U.S. interests globally."
By contrast, Clinton earns 35 percent to 40 percent approval ratings from Republicans and a clear majority among independents. For years, conservatives depicted her as "their worst liberal nightmare." Now, that hatred of the "vast right-wing conspiracy" has been transferred to the president himself and especially former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Polls done in the last year by Gallup, the Associated Press, NBC News, Bloomberg, CNN and even Fox News give Clinton job approval ratings in the 60 percent range. In late March, the Gallup Poll reported that her 66 percent approval rating was her highest since she began running for public office in 1999. The various Clinton controversies of the past -- Whitewater, alleged insider trading, Monica Lewinsky, etc. -- appear to have receded and can be expected to be even less of a factor five years from now.
Third, Clinton still has a substantial personal following among Democrats. She is extremely popular with women, especially those over age 50, who gave her a 77 percent positive rating. (The fact that the name "Hillary" conjures up only one person proves that). After her narrow loss to Obama in 2008, the Gallup Poll asked voters if they would like to see her run for president again someday. By a 52 percent to 47 percent margin, all voters said yes. Democrats were 75 percent to 24 percent in favor of another run. Were she to run again, the Friends of Hillary -- women, Jews, Hispanics, some union members, the remnants of party regulars -- would likely rally to her banner. The old Clinton base is still there for her. And given her stellar ratings as secretary of state, all but the most partisan Republican voters will be likely to give her another look some day.
But not in 2012. Unless the president is incapacitated or choosesto retire, it is highly unlikely that he can be denied renomination. Democrats, despite some grumbling among the Internet activists, are still high on Obama for his delivery on issues like health care, Wall Street reform, appointing the first Hispanic Supreme Court justice and ending the ban on gays serving in the military. Indeed, in the latest CNN poll, no less than 87 percent of Democrats approved of the way Obama was handling his job. And Obama warmly endorsed Vice President Biden at a recent Delaware event, calling his selection "the best decision I ever made." Unless health issues or a scandal fells the vice president, it will be an Obama-Biden ticket again.
If Obama loses in 2012, the next Democratic nomination will bewide open and Clinton would definitely be the front-runner. Whatwould likely be her prospects in the Democratic field of 2016? Onereason Clinton narrowly lost the nomination in 2008 was that Obamawas able to monopolize the votes of black women, part of her traditional base. Unless another strong black candidate emerges, that's not likely to happen again in the next drive.
Other reasons for Clinton's loss were the record black turnout, widely favorable media coverage for the first serious black presidential candidate and an almost flawless campaign by her opponents. In short, she lost to a phenomenon in 2008 -- and it's hard to see lightning striking twice. If she runs, Clinton will have a huge edge in name recognition, fundraising, organization and an existing base among Democrats. She won big-state primaries in New York, California, Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio. In a split field of more than one main opponent, she would be tough to beat.
What about the general election? At this point, it would be extremely difficult to make a judgment: we can't know the political climate of 2016 any more than we can safely predict whether it will rain in Buffalo on July 4, 2016. We don't know who the Republicans will nominate or how many serious independent candidates may run. We don't know what crises may intervene in the next five years.
But based on experience, name recognition and popularity, Clintonis well-positioned for another presidential run in 2016. If she is still vigorous, watch for it.
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Patrick Reddy is a Democratic political consultant in Californiaand the co-author of "California After Arnold."
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